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Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze ndiro dambudziko guru renguva yedu. Iyi koramu inosuma chinyorwa chakakosha che "Journal of Economic Geography" pamusoro pekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, izvo zvinopa hwaro hwekuita sarudzo zvine hungwaru nekukurukura madingindira maviri makuru ezvehupfumi geography yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Chekutanga, shanduko yemamiriro ekunze inoburitsa heterogeneous mhedzisiro munzvimbo dzese. Chechipiri, chinhu chakakosha chekugadzirisa kwevanhu kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze ndiko kufamba kwenzvimbo. Naizvozvo, zvirambidzo pakufamba zvichawedzera mutengo wemagariro nehupfumi hwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Dzimwe shanduko dzakafukidzwa munyaya iyi dzinosanganisira kubereka, hunyanzvi, uye kutengeserana. Kunyangwe nekukasira kuita kwakasimba, tembiricha yepasi muna 2100 inogona kunge iri 3 ° C yakakwira kupfuura panguva yekunyora (Tollefson 2020). Naizvozvo, kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze idambudziko rakakura renguva yedu (kurasikirwa kwemhando dzakasiyana-siyana dzezvipenyu zvinokurumidza zvakaenzana). Mamiriro ezvinhu akabudiswa neIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) anopa mienzaniso yakaoma yekudyidzana kwakaoma pakati pezviitwa zvevanhu nemamiriro ekunze. Nekudaro, yavo yekuenzanisira yehterogeneous spatial mhedzisiro uye mipendero yakawanda yakakanganiswa nechiitiko ichi ichiri nyore nyore (Cruz naRossi-Hansberg 2021a, 2021b). Kugadzirisa zvinonetsa zvaOswald naSternâ?????s (2019) uye nekutevera kuedza kwazvino, senge nyaya yakakosha yepepanhau rezvematongerwo enyika (Azmat et al., 2020), takaunganidza zvinyorwa zvishanu munyowani. economic policy journal special issue bepa. Economic Geography (JoEG) inobatsira kugadzirisa zvikanganiso izvi uye kugadzirisa zvinhu zvakakosha zvemadingindira maviri makuru emamiriro ehupfumi ekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. 1 Kutanga, mhedzisiro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze akasiyana-siyana. Nekudaro, mamwe matunhu epasi anozorasikirwa nehuwandu hwevanhu uye nekubuda kwemunhu pane mamwe, uye mamwe matunhu anogona kutoita nani nekuda kweizvi. Mapepa akati wandei mune ino yakakosha chinyorwa anonyora iyi heterogeneity pamwero wakanaka wepakati. Semuyenzaniso, Figure 1 inoshuma shanduko yetembiricha yakafanotaurwa inokonzerwa ne1°C kuwedzera kwetembiricha yepasi rose pagadziriso ye1° x 1° mumakore 2200.2. Izvo zvinokonzerwa nehterogeneity zvinoshamisa. Chechipiri, vanhu (nemamwe marudzi) vanofanira kuchinjika kuti vararame. Huwandu hwezviito zvekudzikisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze hunosanganisira kudzikisa kabhoni uye methane kusimba kwemaitiro ekushandisa uye maitiro ekugadzira. Mapepa akati wandei mumagazini ino yakakosha anosimbisa kuchinjika kuburikidza nekutama uye geographic mobility. Kunyanya, mapepa aya anosimbisa kuti kushayikwa kwekufamba kunogona sei kuwedzera mari yemagariro nehupfumi hwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Mubepa rekutanga mune yakakosha chinyorwa, Conte, Desmet, Nagy, naRossi-Hansberg (2021a; onawo Conte et al., 2021b) vakataura nezve madingindira maviri ari pamusoro, uye takaronga iyi koramu yeVox maererano nemaonero avo. Munyori akaunza huwandu hwesimba rekukura kwenzvimbo, senge basa rekupayona raWilliam Nordhaus (1993), iro rinoratidzwa nehukama hwemativi maviri pakati pekuita kwehupfumi, kuburitsa kabhoni, uye tembiricha. Zvinonyanya kukosha, kuongorora kunobvumira zvikamu zviviri (zvekurima uye zvisiri zvekurima) zvinotarisa kune tembiricha heterogeneity uye kuparara kwakanyanya kwenzvimbo. Vanyori vakapa modhi yavo nedata pamusoro pehuwandu hwepasi rose, tembiricha, uye chikamu chinobuda. Chigadziriso i1 ° x 1 °, uye kuwedzera kwekuchengetedza kabhoni uye tembiricha yepasi rose zvichitevera kabhoni-yakanyanya IPCC mamiriro (inonzi mumiriri wevasungwa) ndeye 8.5. Vachishandisa modhi yakarongedzerwa yakadai, vakairega ichimhanya kwemakore 200 kuti iverenge nzvimbo yekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze pahuwandu, GDP per capita, uye musanganiswa wekugadzira wezvekurima uye zvisiri zvekurima. Vakasimbisawo basa rekutengeserana uye kutama mukuderedza kana kuwedzera kurasikirwa ne1 ° x 1 ° space unit inokonzerwa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Chiitiko chekutanga cheConte et al. (2021a) Fungidzira kuti kupokana pakati pehuwandu uye zvinhu zvinoyerera zvinogara nekufamba kwenguva. Muenzaniso wavo unofanotaura kuti huwandu hwevanhu veScandinavia, Finland, Siberia, uye kuchamhembe kweCanada huchawedzera, uye mari yemunhu ichawedzerawo. Maodzanyemba kweAfrica, Peninsula yeArabia, kuchamhembe kweIndia, Brazil, neCentral America zvichava nemisiyano mumativi ose ari maviri. kuderedza. Mufananidzo 2 unoburitsa mufananidzo wechitanhatu mubepa ravo, vachirondedzera kukanganisa kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze pahuwandu hunofanotaurwa muna 2200. Kurima kwave kwakanyanya munzvimbo uye kwakatamira kuCentral Asia, China, neCanada. Mamiriro ezvinhu aya anoreva huwandu hukuru hwekufamba kwevanhu mukati nepakati penyika, kunyanya kana mutengo wekutengesa wakakwira. Nokudaro, zvipingamupinyi zvekufamba zvinogona kukonzera kuderera kukuru kwekushanda. Ongorora: Huwandu uhu hunoratidza logarithm yehuwandu hwakafanotaurwa hwe2,200 hunoenderana nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehuwandu mukusavapo kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Huwandu hwevanhu venzvimbo yebhuruu yakasviba inotarisirwa kudarika kaviri; nzvimbo yakatsvuka yakasviba inotarisirwa kurasikirwa inopfuura hafu yevanhu vayo. Mapepa eCastells-Quitana, Krause, and McDermott (2021) anowedzera basa iri nenzira mbiri. Chekutanga, inopa ongororo yekudzoreredza yekudzokorodza kuenzanisa kukanganisa kwekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kwakapfuura pakutama-mumaruwa (onawo Peri uye Sasahara 2019a, 2019b), uye Conte et al. (2021a) inonyanya kufembera chiitiko. Chechipiri, yakadzidza mhedzisiro yekunaya kwenguva refu (1950-2015) kunaya kwemvura uye tembiricha shanduko pahuwandu hwemadhorobha uye chimiro chemaguta makuru munyika dzakasiyana siyana. Zvakanyanya kukosha, ivo vanobvumira kune heterogeneous mhedzisiro pakati pevane mari yakaderera, yepakati, uye ine mari yakakwira, uye vanoongorora mabatiro pachimiro cheguta renyika uye saizi yemadhorobha, density, uye chimiro. Vakaona kuti munyika dzine mamiriro ekunze asina kunaka ekutanga, mamiriro ekunze ari kuwedzera (tembiricha yepamusoro uye kuderera kwemvura) ane hukama nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwemaguta, uye izvi zvinokonzeresa zvakanyanya kusimba munyika dzichiri kusimukira uye zvinokanganisa maDimensions akasiyana-siyana ehuwandu uye kukura kwemaguta, kusanganisira. nzvimbo huru dzemetropolitan. Chimwe chinhu chakakosha chinozadzisa kukanganisa kwehupfumi hwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze ndiko kukanganisa kwaro pamagariro emunharaunda uye kukakavara. Bepa rakanyorwa naBosetti, Cattaneo, naPeri (2021) rakaongorora kana kutama-muganho pakati pe1960 ne2000 kwakakanganisa kubatana pakati pekukwira kwekushisa uye kukakavara munyika zana nemakumi maviri nematanhatu. Kune rimwe divi, kukwira kwetembiricha uye kusanaya kwemvura nguva zhinji kuchawedzera kushomeka kwezviwanikwa zvemuno, zvichikanganisa mukana wekukonana kwenzvimbo (semuenzaniso, Hsiang et al., 2011). Kune rimwe divi, iyo yehupfumi modhi yekutama neConte et al. (2021a) inoratidza kuti nekuda kwekuderera kwechigadzirwa nekuda kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, kufamba kunoderedza kurasikirwa kwehupfumi. Bosetti et al. Kubatanidza maonero maviri aya, zvinoratidza kuti munyika dzine urombo, mukana wekukonana kwemukati unopindirana zvakanaka nekushisa, uye kuwirirana uku kunonyanya kusimba munyika dzine tsika yakaderera yekutama. Kuenda kune dzimwe nyika se "valve yekupukunyuka" iri pasi pekumanikidzwa kwehupfumi. Kuderedza dzvinyiriro yechiverengero chavagari vapasi munyika dzichiri kusimukira uko goho rekurima riri kuderera kunoratidzika kuva nzira inobudirira yokuderedza nayo ngozi yokuti nzvimbo idzi dzive kurwisana kwomunzvimbomo. Mhedzisiro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze pakubereka haisati yaongororwa. Mhinduro yedambudziko iri iGreen's (2021) bepa, iro rinoongorora hukama pakati pekuvhunduka kwemamiriro ekunze uye kushanduka kwevanhu muUnited States kubva 1870 kusvika 1930. Munyori akanyora kuwirirana kwakanaka pakati pekuchinja kwekunaya kwemvura munzvimbo uye musiyano wekubereka pakati. mhuri dzemapurazi uye dzisiri dzekurima. Munzanga dzomumaruwa, apo kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze uye kusava nechokwadi kunowedzera kuchinja mukubudirira kwekurima, kushandiswa kwevana kunopa zvimwe zvinhu; saka, dzimba dzekumaruwa dzinogona kuwedzera kubereka, uye nzira iyi haishande mudzimba dzemudhorobha. Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kunokonzera kukwira kwemvura yemugungwa uye madutu nemadutu anowanzoitika. Nzvimbo dziri mumhenderekedzo yegungwa dzine ngozi zvikuru. 3 Shandisa maitiro epfungwa padyo neConte et al. (2021a), Desmet et al. (2021) Fungidzira mutengo wehupfumi wemafashama emahombekombe. Bepa rakanyorwa naIndaco, Ortega, naTaspinar (2021) muJoEG yakakosha nyaya inozadzisa bepa nekunyora mabatiro eHurricane Sandy pabhizinesi reNew York City. Mafashamo muna 2021 akakonzera kudzikiswa kwakasiyana-siyana mumabasa (inenge 4% paavhareji) uye mihoro (inoda kusvika 2% paavhareji), uye kukanganisa kweBrooklyn neQueens kwakakura kupfuura kweManhattan. Izvi zvakasiyana-siyana mhedzisiro inoratidza heterogeneity yemafashama kuomarara uye kuumbwa kweindasitiri. De Smet et al. (2021) Akagadzira modhi mumhuri imwechete saConte et al. (2021a) Inofungidzirwa kuti kurasikirwa kwehupfumi kunokonzerwa nemafashamo egungwa mu2200 kuchawedzera kubva ku0.11% yemari chaiyo apo mhinduro yekufambisa inobvumirwa ku4.5% kana mhinduro isingabvumirwi. Mamwe mapepa matatu munyaya iyi inokosha zvakare anotarisa pamusoro pebasa rekutama semagadzirirwo emamiriro ekunze. Castells-Quitana et al. (2021) Kutama kwakanyorwa kubva kumaruwa kuenda kumaguta ari mukati memiganhu yenyika, uye yakanangana nekufamba sesimba rinokanganisa mhedzisiro yekugariswa kwemadhorobha kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Bosetti et al. (2021) inoongorora kuti kuyambuka muganhu pakati pe1960 ne2000 kwakakanganisa sei hukama pakati pekudziya uye kukakavara munyika dze126. 4 Kuenda kune dzimwe nyika kunoderedza kukanganisa kwekukwira kwekushisa pamusoro pekugona kwehondo, asi kwete kuwedzera mukana wekukonana munyika dzakavakidzana (immigration) nyika. Kufamba kwakakoshawo kumakambani nevashandirwi. Indak et al. (2021) inoratidza kuti mabhizinesi ari kujairana nenjodzi yemafashama nekutamisa masangano, uye mamwe mabhizinesi anogona kutobatsirwa nemafashama. Kugona kutama kunoenderana nechikamu chebhizinesi, asi kazhinji, kufamba kwekambani zvakare inzvimbo yakakosha yekuchinjika kumamiriro ekunze. Conte et al. (2021a) Inowanikwawo kuti kutama uye kutengeserana zvinotsiva. Kutengeserana kwepamusoro ndicho chipingamupinyi chemusanganiswa wekugadzira wemuno kuti uenderane nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, nekuti shanduko yekuzvigutsa inodzivirira kushandiswa kwenzvimbo inokura yekuenzanisa. Izvi zvinokurudzira kutama kubva kunzvimbo dzakanyanya kukanganiswa kuenda kunzvimbo dzisina kukanganiswa nekukwira kwekushisa. Sezvineiwo, nzvimbo idzi dzakanangana nepamusoro-chigadzirwa cheEurope, Japan, uye United States. Naizvozvo, mitengo yakakwira yekutengeserana haizotungamira kune zvinogara zvichikwira mutengo wemamiriro ekunze. Iri ichangoburwa basa raCruz naRossi-Hansberg (2021a, 2021b) iri zvakare rekuwedzera kuna Conte et al. (2021a), tichifunga nezvemamwe mativi maviri ekuchinja-kunokonzerwa nemamiriro ekunze: kunyaradza uye kubereka. Kunyangwe zvisati zvanyatsoongororwa, chiteshi chekubereka chinotora nzvimbo yepakati muGreen's (2021) bepa. Grimm akaongorora misiyano yembereko pakati pemhuri dzemapurazi nedzisiri dzemapurazi mudunhu nekufamba kwenguva kuti vaone kukanganisa kwemvura nekusanaya kwemvura pakuchinja kwehuwandu hwevanhu. Akaona kuti mutsauko wehuwandu hwekubereka munzvimbo dzine shanduko huru mukunaya kwemvura wakanyanya kudarika munzvimbo dzine shanduko shoma mukunaya kwemvura. Sezvineiwo, izvi zvakanyangarika apo madiridziro nemichina yekurima yakanetesa kubatana pakati pekuchinja kwekunaya kwemvura negoho. Chekupedzisira, isu tinofanirwa kuongorora akatevedzana akaomesesa mhedzisiro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze pane hupfumi uye nzanga. Hatifanire kufunga kwete chete nzira, nzira, uye heterogeneity inotitungamira kuti tinzwisise maitiro, asiwo zvidzidzo zvenyaya uye zvakanyanya kunangwa empirical ongororo. Imwe kana yakawanda yadzo, uye inopa ruzivo uye causality. Takaunganidza mamwe mapepa epasi akabatanidza nzira mbiri idzi mune ino yakakosha chinyorwa cheChinyorwa cheEconomic Geography. Tinovimba kuti mapepa aya achakurudzira kutsvagisa uye kudyidzana kwakawanda pakati pe microeconomists uye macroeconomists vanodzidza mhedzisiro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Azmat, G, J Hassler, A Ichino, P Krusell, T Monacelli, uye MSchularick (2020), "Kudaidzira Impact: Economic Policy Special Issue paEconomics of Climate Change," VoxEU. Sangano, Ndira 17. Balboni, C (2019), â???? Munzira Inokuvadza? Infrastructure investment uye kusimba kwemaguta emahombekombe ????, Bepa rekushanda, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Bosetti, V, C Cattaneo naG Peri (2021)-vanofanira kugara here kana kuti vanofanira kubva? Kutama kwemamiriro ekunze nekunetsana kwenzvimbo-Journal of Economic Geography 21(4), Special Issue yeEconomic Geography yeClimate Change. Castells-Quitana, D, M Krause naT McDermott (2021), "The Urbanization Forces of Global Warming: Basa reKuchinja Kwemamiriro ekunze muSpatial Distribution of Population", Journal of Economic Geography 21 (4), Economic Geography yeClimate Change. Dzidza chinyorwa chakakosha. Cattaneo, C, M Beine, C Fröhlich, nezvimwewo (2019), â???? Kutama kwevanhu munguva yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. ???? Economics Economics uye Policy Ongororo 13: 189–206. Cattaneo, C, and G Peri (2015), "Immigration" mhinduro yekukwira kwekushisa-VoxEU, November 14. Cattaneo, C and G Peri (2016), â???? Kutama kunopindurwa nekuwedzera tembiricha. â???? Journal of Development Economics 122: 127â????146. Conte, Bruno, Klaus Desmet, Dávid K ​​​​Nagy, uye Esteban Rossi-Hansberg (2021a), "Local Sector Specialization in a Warming World", Journal of Economic Geography 21 (4), Special Issue paEconomic Geography yeClimate Change. Conte, B, K Desmet, DK Nagy, uye E Rossi-Hansberg (2021b), "Adapting to trade: Changing specialization to fight climate change", VoxEU.org, May 4. Cruz, JL and E Rossi-Hansberg (2021a) , "The Economic Geography of Global Warming", CEPR Discussion Paper 15803. Cruz, JL naE Rossi-Hansberg (2021b), "Zvinatso Zvisina Kuenzana: Kuongorora Kupesvedzera Kwehupfumi Kwese uye Spatial yeGlobal Warming", VoxEU.org, March 2. Desmet, K, DK Nagy, uye E Rossi-Hansberg (2018), "Chinja kana kuremerwa"? ? , VoxEU.org, Gumiguru 2nd. Desmet, K, RE Kopp, SA Kulp, DK Nagy, M Oppenheimer, E Rossi-Hansberg, uye BH Strauss (2021), "Kuongorora mutengo wehupfumi wemafashama emahombekombe"? ? , American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13 (2): 444-486. Grimm, M (2021), "Njodzi yekunaya kwemvura, Mwero wekubereka, uye Kubudirira: Humbowo hweKugara kwePurazi Munguva yeShanduko yeUS", Journal of Economic Geography 21(4), Climate Economic Geography Special Issue Change. Hsiang, SM, KC Meng uye MA Cane (2011), â???? Hondo yevagari vemo ine hukama nemamiriro ekunze epasi rose â????, Nature 476: 438â????40 Indaco, A, F Ortega, uye S Taspinar (2021), "Hurricane, Dambudziko reMafashamo, uye Bhizinesi Economic Adaptation", "Journal yeEconomic Geography" 21(4), "Economic Geography" Special Issue Kuchinja Kwemamiriro ekunze. Lin, T, TKJ McDermott naG Michaels (2021a), "Cities and Sea Level", CEPR Discussion Paper 16004. Lin, T, TKJ McDermott naG Michaels (2021b), â?????? Kuvakirei dzimba munzvimbo dziri mumhenderekedzo dzegungwa dzinowanzoita mafashamo? , VoxEU.org, April 22. Nordhaus, WD (1993), "Roll the Dice": The Best Transition Path to Control Greenhouse Gases, Resource and Energy Economics 15 (1): 27-50. Oswald, A and N Stern (2019), â?????Sei nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzichiodza mwoyo nyika pamusoro pekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze???? VoxEU.org, Gunyana 17th. Peri, G uye A Sasahara (2019a), "Impact of Global Warming paUrban and Rural Migration: Evidence from Global Big Data", NBER Working Paper 25728. Peri, G and A Sasahara (2019b), "The Impact of Global Warming paRural-Urban Migration-", VoxEU.org, Chikunguru 15. Tollefson, J (2020). â???? Ko Nyika ingatadza kuiwana sei ne2100? â????, Nature News, Kubvumbi. doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-01125-x Yohe, G, naM Schlesinger (2002). â???? 2 Iyi nhamba inoburitsa nhamba yechishanu mubepa naConte Desmet, Nagy, and Rossi-Hansberg (2021). Tinotenda vanyori ava nekugovana data ravo nesu. 3 Lin et al. (2021a, 2021b) yakanyora kuwedzera kunotyisa (kubva pa12% kusvika ku14%) yedzimba dzakavakwa munzvimbo dzemahombekombe dziri panjodzi yemafashamo pedyo neAtlantic neGulf yeMexico pakati pe1990 ne2010. Balboni (2019) akataura kuti mari yakapfuura zvivakwa zvinogona kutsanangura kuenderera mberi kwemaguta emahombekombe. 4 Yohe uye Schelsinger (2002) uye Cattaneo et al. (2019) yakanyorawo mhinduro yemaguta ekukwira kwekushisa; Cattaneo naPeri (2015, 2016) vakanyora mhinduro yekutama kwenyika.