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Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuyinselelo enkulu yesikhathi sethu. Le kholamu yethula udaba olukhethekile lwe-"Journal of Economic Geography" mayelana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, oluhlinzeka ngesisekelo sokuthatha izinqumo ezihlakaniphile ngokuxoxa ngezindikimba ezimbili eziyinhloko zejografi yezomnotho yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu. Okokuqala, ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuzoveza imiphumela ehlukahlukene ezikhaleni. Okwesibili, isici esibalulekile sokujwayela komuntu ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu ukuhamba kwezindawo. Ngakho-ke, imingcele yokuhamba izokwandisa izindleko zenhlalo-mnotho zokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Okunye ukulungiswa okukhulunywa ngakho kulolu daba kubandakanya ukuzala, ubungcweti, nokuhweba. Ngisho nangesenzo esisheshayo esisheshayo, izinga lokushisa lomhlaba ngo-2100 lingase libe phezulu okungenani ngo-3°C kunangesikhathi sokubhala (Tollefson 2020). Ngakho-ke, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuyinselelo enkulu yesikhathi sethu (ukulahleka kwezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo kuyaphuthuma ngokufanayo). Izimo ezikhishwe yi-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) zinikeza amamodeli ayinkimbinkimbi okusebenzelana okuyinkimbinkimbi phakathi kwemisebenzi yabantu nesimo sezulu. Kodwa-ke, ukumodela kwabo kwemiphumela yendawo ehlukahlukene kanye nemiphetho eminingi ethintwa yile nto kuselula (u-Cruz noRossi-Hansberg 2021a, 2021b). Ukubhekana nokukhathazeka kuka-Oswald no-Sternâ???? ijenali yenqubomgomo yezomnotho iphepha lokukhishwa okukhethekile. I-Economic Geography (JoEG) isiza ukubhekana nalokhu kushiyeka kanye nokubhekana nezingxenye ezibalulekile zezindikimba ezimbili eziyinhloko zesimo somnotho sokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. 1 Okokuqala, imiphumela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu iyahlukahluka ngokwendawo. Ngokulandelayo, ezinye izifunda zomhlaba zizolahlekelwa inani labantu abaningi kanye nokuphumayo komuntu ngamunye kunezinye, futhi ezinye izifunda zingase zibe ngcono ngenxa yalokhu. Amaphepha amaningana kulolu hlelo olukhethekile abhala lokhu kuhlukahluka ngezinga elihle lendawo. Isibonelo, Umfanekiso 1 ubika ukuguquka kwezinga lokushisa okubikezelwe okubangelwa ukwanda ngo-1°C kwezinga lokushisa lomhlaba wonke ngokulungiswa okungu-1° x 1° eminyakeni engu-2200.2. I-heterogeneity ewumphumela iyamangalisa. Okwesibili, abantu (nezinye izinhlobo zezilwane) kumelwe bazivumelanise nezimo ukuze baphile. Uhlu lwezenzo zokunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu lubandakanya ukunciphisa amandla ekhabhoni ne-methane emikhuba yokusetshenziswa kanye nezinqubo zokukhiqiza. Amaphepha amaningana akulolu shicilelo olukhethekile agcizelela ukuzivumelanisa nezimo ngokufuduka nokuhamba kwendawo. Ikakhulukazi, la maphepha agcizelela ukuthi ukuntuleka kokuhamba kungabhebhethekisa kanjani izindleko zenhlalo-mnotho zokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Ephepheni lokuqala kumagazini okhethekile, uConte, Desmet, Nagy, kanye noRossi-Hansberg (2021a; bona futhi Conte et al., 2021b) bakhulume ngezindikimba ezimbili ezingenhla, futhi sahlela le kholomu ye-Vox ngokwemibono yabo. Umbhali wethula imodeli yokukhula kwendawo eguquguqukayo yomthamo, njengomsebenzi wokuqala kaWilliam Nordhaus (1993), obonakala ngobudlelwano obubili phakathi komsebenzi wezomnotho, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni, nezinga lokushisa. Okubalulekile, ukuhlaziya kuvumela imikhakha emibili (yezolimo kanye neyokungeyona eyezolimo) ezwela ukuhlukahluka kwezinga lokushisa kanye nokubola kwendawo enhle kakhulu. Ababhali banikeze imodeli yabo ngedatha yabantu bomhlaba, izinga lokushisa, kanye nokuphumayo komkhakha. Isixazululo singu-1° x 1°, kanye nokwenyuka kokugcinwa kwekhabhoni nezinga lokushisa lomhlaba wonke kulandela isimo se-IPCC esibamba kakhulu ikhabhoni (esibizwa ngokuthi ukugxiliswa kommeleli) ngu-8.5. Besebenzisa imodeli enjalo elinganiselwe, bayivumela ukuthi isebenze iminyaka engama-200 ukuze kulinganiswe ukuhlukahluka kwendawo yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kubantu, i-GDP ngomuntu ngamunye, kanye nengxube yokukhiqiza yomkhiqizo wezolimo nokungezona ezokulima. Baphinde bagcizelela indima yokuhweba nokufuduka ekwehliseni noma ekwandiseni ukulahleka ngeyunithi yendawo ngayinye engu-1° x 1° okubangelwa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Isigcawu sokuqala sikaConte et al. (2021a) Cabanga ukuthi ukungqubuzana phakathi kwabantu nokugeleza kwempahla kuhlala njalo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Imodeli yabo ibikezela ukuthi inani labantu baseScandinavia, eFinland, eSiberia nasenyakatho yeCanada lizokwanda, futhi imali engenayo yomuntu ngamunye nayo izokwanda. INyakatho Afrika, i-Arabian Peninsula, inyakatho ye-India, iBrazil, ne-Central America izoba nomehluko kuzo zombili lezi zici. nqaba. Umfanekiso wesi-2 ukhiqiza umfanekiso wesi-6 ephepheni labo, ubika umthelela wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu kubantu ababikezelwe ngo-2200. Ezolimo sezigxile kakhulu emkhathini futhi zathuthela e-Asia Emaphakathi, eChina naseCanada. Lezi zimo zisho inani elikhulu lokuhamba kwabantu ngaphakathi naphakathi kwamazwe, ikakhulukazi uma izindleko zohwebo ziphezulu. Ngakho-ke, izithiyo zokuhamba zingase zibangele ukuncipha okukhulu ekusebenzeni kahle. Qaphela: Lesi sibalo sibonisa i-logarithm yenani labantu elibikezelwe labangu-2,200 uma liqhathaniswa nenani labantu elibikezelwe ngaphandle kokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Inani labantu endaweni eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka elimnyama kulindeleke ukuthi libe ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabili; indawo ebomvu emnyama kulindeleke ukuthi ilahlekelwe ngaphezu kwengxenye yabantu bayo. Amaphepha kaCastells-Quitana, Krause, kanye noMcDermott (2021) anezela lo msebenzi ngezindlela ezimbili. Okokuqala, ihlinzeka ngokuhlaziywa kokuhlehla kokubuyela emuva ukuze kulinganise umthelela wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu okudlule ekufudukeni kwabantu basemadolobheni nasemaphandleni (bona futhi i-Peri ne-Sasahara 2019a, 2019b), kanye ne-Conte et al. (2021a) ikakhulukazi umsebenzi wokubikezela. Okwesibili, yafunda imiphumela yemvula yesikhathi eside (1950-2015) kanye nokushintsha kwezinga lokushisa ngezinga lokuhlala emadolobheni kanye nesakhiwo samadolobha amakhulu emazweni ahlukahlukene. Okubalulekile, avumela imithelela ehlukahlukene phakathi kwamazwe anemali engenayo ephansi, engenayo imali emaphakathi, nanemali engenayo ephezulu, futhi afunde umthelela kusakhiwo sedolobha sisonke nosayizi wamadolobha, ukuminyana, kanye nesimo. Bathole ukuthi emazweni anezimo zezulu ezingezinhle ekuqaleni, izimo zezulu eziya ziba zimbi (ukushisa okuphezulu nemvula ephansi) zihlobene namazinga aphezulu okuya emadolobheni, futhi le miphumela inamandla kakhulu emazweni asathuthuka futhi ithinta Ubukhulu obuhlukahlukene bokuminyana nokukhula kwamadolobha, okuhlanganisa izindawo ezinkulu zamadolobha amakhulu. Esinye isici esibalulekile esihambisana nomthelela wezomnotho wokushintsha kwesimo sezulu umthelela wako ezinxushunxushwini nasezingxabanweni zomphakathi. Iphepha lika-Bosetti, Cattaneo, and Peri (2021) lihlaziye ukuthi ukufuduka kwemingcele phakathi kuka-1960 no-2000 kuthinte isixhumanisi phakathi kokukhuphuka kwamazinga okushisa nokungqubuzana emazweni ayi-126. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukunyuka kwamazinga okushisa kanye nesomiso esivamile kuzokwandisa ukushoda kwezinsiza zendawo, ngaleyo ndlela kuthinte amathuba okuba khona kwezingxabano zendawo (isibonelo, u-Hsiang et al., 2011). Ngakolunye uhlangothi, imodeli yezomnotho yokufuduka kuka-Conte et al. (2021a) ikhombisa ukuthi ngenxa yokwehla kokukhiqiza ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ukuhamba kunciphisa ukulahlekelwa kwezomnotho. Bosetti et al. Ukuhlanganisa le mibono emibili, kufakazela ukuthi emazweni ampofu, amathuba okungqubuzana kwangaphakathi ahlotshaniswa kahle nezinga lokushisa, futhi lokhu kuhlotshaniswa kunamandla ikakhulukazi emazweni anomkhuba ophansi wokufuduka. Ukuthuthela kwelinye izwe njenge "valve yokuphunyuka" kungaphansi kwengcindezi yezomnotho. Ukunciphisa ukucindezela kwenani labantu emazweni asathuthuka lapho ukukhiqizwa kwezolimo kuncipha kubonakala kuyindlela ephumelelayo yokunciphisa ubungozi balezi zindawo zibe izingxabano zendawo. Umthelela wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu ekuvundeni awukahlolisiswa. Isixazululo sale nkinga iphepha likaGreen (2021), elihlola ubudlelwano phakathi kokushaqeka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokushintshashintsha kwabantu e-United States kusukela ngo-1870 kuya ku-1930. Umbhali ubhale ukuhlobana okuhle phakathi kokushintsha kwemvula endaweni kanye nomehluko wokuzala phakathi amakhaya asemapulazini nangewona amapulazi. Emiphakathini yasemaphandleni, lapho ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokungaqiniseki kwandisa izinguquko ekukhiqizeni kwezolimo, ukusetshenzwa kwezingane kunikeza izinsiza ezengeziwe; ngakho-ke, imizi yasemaphandleni ingase inyuse izinga lokuzala, futhi le ndlela ayisebenzi emakhaya asemadolobheni. Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuholela ekukhuphukeni kwamazinga olwandle neziphepho neziphepho ezivame kakhulu. Izindawo ezisogwini ziyingozi kakhulu. 3 Sebenzisa indlela esondelene no-Conte et al. (2021a), uDesmet et al. (2021) Linganisela izindleko zezomnotho zezikhukhula zasogwini. Iphepha lika-Indaco, Ortega, and Taspinar (2021) kumagazini okhethekile we-JoEG lihambisana nephepha ngokubhala umthelela weSiphepho uSandy ebhizinisini laseNew York City. Izikhukhula zango-2021 zaholela ekwehleni okuhlukahlukene komsebenzi (cishe u-4% ngokwesilinganiso) namaholo (cishe u-2% ngokwesilinganiso), futhi umthelela wase-Brooklyn naseQueens wawumkhulu kunalowo waseManhattan. Le miphumela ehlukahlukene ibonisa ukuhlukahluka kobunzima bezikhukhula kanye nokwakheka kwemboni. UDe Smet et al. (2021) Wakhe imodeli emndenini ofanayo no-Conte et al. (2021a) Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ukulahlekelwa kwezomnotho okubangelwa izikhukhula zasogwini ngo-2200 kuzokhuphuka kusuka ku-0.11% wemali engenayo yangempela lapho impendulo yokuthutha ivunyelwe ku-4.5% lapho impendulo ingavunyelwe. Amanye amaphepha amathathu akulolu shicilelo olukhethekile nawo agxile endimeni yokufuduka kwabantu njengendlela yokubhekana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. Castells-Quitana et al. (2021) Ukufuduka okubhalwe phansi kusuka ezindaweni zasemaphandleni kuya emadolobheni angaphakathi kwemingcele kazwelonke, futhi kugxile ekuhambeni njengamandla athinta imiphumela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu emadolobheni. Bosetti et al. (2021) ihlaziya ukuthi ukufuduka kwemingcele phakathi kuka-1960 no-2000 kuthinte kanjani ukuxhumana phakathi kokufudumala nokungqubuzana emazweni angu-126. 4 Ukuthuthela kwelinye izwe kunciphisa umthelela wokukhuphuka kwamazinga okushisa okungenzeka kube nezingxabano, kuyilapho kungakhulisi amathuba okungqubuzana emazweni angomakhelwane (ukufuduka) emazweni. Ukuhamba kubalulekile ezinkampanini nakubaqashi. Indak et al. (2021) kukhombisa ukuthi amabhizinisi ajwayelana nezingozi zezikhukhula ngokuthuthela izikhungo, futhi amanye amabhizinisi angase azuze ngisho nangezikhukhula. Ikhono lokuthuthela kwenye indawo lincike emkhakheni webhizinisi, kodwa ngokuvamile, ukuhamba kwenkampani nakho kuyigumbi elibalulekile lokuzivumelanisa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Conte et al. (2021a) Kuphinde kutholakale ukuthi ukuthuthela kwelinye izwe kanye nohwebo kuyizinto ezibambele. Ukuhwebelana okuphezulu kuyisithiyo sengxube yokukhiqiza yendawo ukuze ivumelane nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ngoba ukushintshela ekuzineliseni kuvimbela ukusetshenziswa kwezinzuzo zokuqhathanisa ezikhulayo zesifunda. Lokhu kukhuthaza ukufuduka kusuka ezindaweni ezithinteke kakhulu ukuya ezindaweni ezithinteke kancane ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamazinga okushisa. Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi lezi zifunda zigxile emazweni akhiqiza kakhulu aseYurophu, eJapan nase-United States. Ngakho-ke, izindleko zokuhweba eziphezulu ngeke ziholele ezindlekweni zesimo sezulu ezihlala ziphakeme. Umsebenzi wakamuva ka-Cruz no-Rossi-Hansberg (2021a, 2021b) nawo uyisithasiselo ku-Conte et al. (2021a), kucatshangelwa ezinye iziphetho ezimbili zoshintsho olubangelwa isimo sezulu: ukunethezeka nokuzala. Yize kungakahlolisiswa ngokugcwele, isiteshi sokuzala sithatha indawo emaphakathi ekhasini likaGreen's (2021). U-Grimm uhlaziye umehluko wokuzala phakathi kwemindeni yasemapulazini nengewona amapulazi esifundeni ngokuhamba kwesikhathi ukuze athole umthelela oyimbangela wemvula nezingozi zesomiso ekushintsheni kwenani labantu. Uthole ukuthi umehluko wamazinga enzalo ezindaweni ezinoshintsho olukhulu emvuleni uphezulu kakhulu kunezindawo ezinoshintsho oluncane lwemvula. Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi lo mphumela wanyamalala lapho ukunisela ngenkasa nemishini yezolimo kwenza buthaka ukuxhumana phakathi kwezinguquko zemvula nesivuno. Ekugcineni, sidinga ukuhlaziya uchungechunge lwemiphumela eyinkimbinkimbi yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu emnothweni nasemphakathini. Akufanele sicabangele kuphela iziteshi, izindlela, kanye ne-heterogeneity esiqondisa ukuze siqonde umthelela, kodwa futhi nezifundo eziyizikesi kanye nokuhlaziya okuhlosiwe okwengeziwe. Eyodwa noma eminingana yazo, futhi inikeze imininingwane nembangela. Siqoqe amaphepha abalulekile ahlanganisa lezi zindlela ezimbili kulolu hlelo olukhethekile lwe-Journal of Economic Geography. Sithemba ukuthi la maphepha azokhuthaza ucwaningo nokusebenzisana okwengeziwe phakathi kwe-microeconomists kanye ne-macroeconomists abafunda imiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. U-Azmat, G, J Hassler, A Ichino, P Krusell, T Monacelli, kanye no-MSchularick (2020), "Call for Impact: Economic Policy Special Issue on the Economics of Climate Change," VoxEU. Inhlangano, Januwari 17. Balboni, C (2019), â???? Ngendlela Eyingozi? Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwengqalasizinda kanye nokusimama kwamadolobha asogwini ????, iphepha lokusebenza, iMassachusetts Institute of Technology. I-Bosetti, V, C Cattaneo kanye no-G Peri (2021) -ingabe kufanele bahlale noma bahambe? Ukufuduka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokungqubuzana kwendawo-Iphephabhuku Le-Economic Geography 21(4), Udaba Olukhethekile Lwendawo Yomnotho Yokushintsha Kwesimo Sezulu. I-Castells-Quitana, D, M Krause kanye no-T McDermott (2021), "The Urbanization Forces of Global Warming: Iqhaza Lokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu Ekusabalaliseni Kwendawo Kwabantu", Ijenali ye-Economic Geography 21 (4), I-Economic Geography of Climate Change Funda udaba olukhethekile. Cattaneo, C, M Beine, C Fröhlich, njll. (2019), â???? Ukufuduka kwabantu enkathini yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. ???? Ukubuyekezwa Kwezomnotho Nenqubomgomo Yemvelo 13: 189–206. Cattaneo, C, and G Peri (2015), "Immigration" impendulo ekukhuphukeni kwezinga lokushisa-VoxEU, November 14. Cattaneo, C and G Peri (2016), â???? Ukusabela kokufuduka ekukhuphukeni kwezinga lokushisa. â???? Journal of Development Economics 122: 127â????146. Conte, Bruno, Klaus Desmet, Dávid K Nagy, and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg (2021a), "Local Sector Specialization in a warming World", Journal of Economic Geography 21(4), Special Issue on Economic Geography of Climate Change. Conte, B, K Desmet, DK Nagy, and E Rossi-Hansberg (2021b), "Adapting to trade: Changing specialization to fight climate change", VoxEU.org, May 4. Cruz, JL and E Rossi-Hansberg (2021a) , "The Economic Geography of Global Warming", CEPR Discussion Paper 15803. Cruz, JL kanye no-E Rossi-Hansberg (2021b), "Izinzuzo Ezingalingani: Ukuhlola Umthelela Ophelele Nowomhlaba Wokufudumala Kwendawo", VoxEU.org, Mashi 2. U-Desmet, K, DK Nagy, no-E Rossi-Hansberg (2018), "Vumela noma ukhungatheke"? ? , VoxEU.org, Okthoba 2nd. U-Desmet, K, RE Kopp, SA Kulp, DK Nagy, M Oppenheimer, E Rossi-Hansberg, no-BH Strauss (2021), "Ukuhlola izindleko zezomnotho zezikhukhula zasogwini"? ? , I-American Economic Journal: I-Macroeconomics 13 (2): 444-486. Grimm, M (2021), "Ingozi Yemvula, Izinga Lokuzala, Nentuthuko: Ubufakazi Bezindawo Zasepulazini Phakathi Nenkathi Yoshintsho Yase-US", Ijenali Yendawo Yomnotho 21(4), Ushintsho Lwendaba Ekhethekile Yesimo Sezulu Sezomnotho. I-Hsiang, SM, KC Meng kanye ne-MA Cane (2011), â???? Impi yombango ihlobene nesimo sezulu somhlaba wonke â????, Imvelo 476: 438â????40 Indaco, A, F Ortega, and S Taspinar (2021), "Hurricane, Flood Risk, and Business Adaptation", "Journal ye-Economic Geography" 21(4), "I-Economic Geography" Udaba Olukhethekile Lokushintsha Kwesimo Sezulu. U-Lin, T, TKJ McDermott kanye no-G Michaels (2021a), "Amadolobha Nezinga Lolwandle", I-CEPR Discussion Paper 16004. U-Lin, T, TKJ McDermott no-G Michaels (2021b), â?????? Kungani kwakhiwe izindlu ezindaweni ezisogwini ezivame ukuba nezikhukhula? , VoxEU.org, April 22. Nordhaus, WD (1993), "Roll the Dice": Indlela Engcono Kakhulu Yokuguqula Ukulawula Amagesi Abamba Ukushisa, Izinsiza Nezomnotho Zamandla 15(1): 27-50. Oswald, A and N Stern (2019), â?????Kungani izazi zezomnotho zidumaza umhlaba ngokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu???? VoxEU.org, Septhemba 17. I-Peri, G kanye no-A Sasahara (2019a), "Umthelela Wokufudumala Kwembulunga Yonke Ekufudukeni Kwasemadolobheni Nasemakhaya: Ubufakazi obuvela ku-Global Big Data", I-NBER Working Paper 25728. Peri, G kanye no-A Sasahara (2019b), "Umthelela Wokufudumala Komhlaba nge-Rural-Urban Migration-", VoxEU.org, July 15. Tollefson, J (2020). â???? Kungenzeka kanjani ukuthi umhlaba ungawutholi ngo-2100? â????, isici Sezindaba Zemvelo, ngo-April. doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-01125-x Yohe, G, kanye no-M Schlesinger (2002). â?? 2 Lesi sibalo sikhiqiza umfanekiso 5 ephepheni ngu-Conte Desmet, Nagy, and Rossi-Hansberg (2021). Sibonga laba babhali ngokwabelana nathi ngedatha yabo. 3 Lin et al. (2021a, 2021b) iqophe ukwenyuka okuthusayo (kusuka ku-12% kuya ku-14%) kwezindlu ezakhiwe ezindaweni ezisogwini ezisengozini yezikhukhula eduze ne-Atlantic kanye neGulf of Mexico phakathi kuka-1990 no-2010. U-Balboni (2019) uveze ukuthi ukutshalwa kwezimali okwedlule ingqalasizinda ingase ichaze ukuqhubeka nokuba khona kwamadolobha angasogwini. 4 Yohe and Schelsinger (2002) kanye noCattaneo et al. (2019) futhi yaqopha impendulo yokufudukela emadolobheni ekukhuphukeni kwamazinga okushisa; U-Cattaneo no-Peri (2015, 2016) baqophe impendulo yokufuduka kwamanye amazwe.